Severe T-Storms Across Plains, Mon into Tues Night

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NOAA is calling for severe weather to move into the plains, late Monday, causing severe weather, including thunderstorms, lightning, hail and tornadoes. 

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According to NOAA, some areas of the mid-west could experience a chance of severe weather in excess of 55%. Probabilistic models show areas of Oklahoma City, Lawton, Edmond, Midwest City, Moore, in addition to others, have a baseline of 45%, with a significant increase of 10% for severe weather within  25 miles. 

A warm front is expected to begin moving through the area around 12Z, Monday morning, delivering large amounts of water vapor. Dew-points in the 60/low-70's, south of the front will result in instability within the warm sector, expected to be moderate to strong. Northward progression is expected to stall around the KS/OK border, increasing the potential for severe hail, north of the warm front, while a larger potential for severe weather is expected along the southern portion of the front. 

A surge eastward is expected, after 00Z, but NOAA is uncertain as to the mechanism that could cause this event or the most favored region for initiation. 

Energy in the area, combined with a 70kt southwesterly flow, low-level, 40kt jet and surface winds of 15-20kt should result in large, looping hodographs, "favorable for discrete supercells capable of all severe hazards, including significant tornadoes. 

...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado: 15% SIG - Moderate
Wind: 45% - Enhanced
Hail: 30% SIG - Enhanced

Nothing in this article should be used to make life-saving decisions. Consult your local weather station or NOAA for official reports.

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