2019 Hurricane Season Early Prediction

2019 Hurricane Season Early Prediction

There is no denying it. If you live along the south east coast of the U.S. you'd better be ready for a hurricane. With major hurricanes rocking multiple states, last year, we are holding our breath to see what this year brings. There is no doubt that non-profit groups are gearing up, collecting supplies and volunteers, with governments changing building codes and implementing training procedures, but what does mother nature have in store for us?

According to a new report by Colorado State University, we might be getting a break in 2019. By analyzing weather patterns and using predictive algorithms, the Department of Atmospheric Science was able to release a report forecasting lower than average hurricane activity, for the eastern United States. In short, based on their evidence, areas that saw catastrophic damage could get a chance to breathe easier, this year. Other areas that were not affected can continue to prepare, drawing wisdom from the lessons of Michael and Florence.

According to their data, CSU suggests there could be 5 different scenarios that play out, this hurricane season, three of which could produce less a less than average number of hurricanes. Climate factors, such as sea surface temperatures and El Nino play a major factor in the development of hurricanes and, since the El Nino pattern has begun to develop, their predictions are right on track, so far.

Beware of early weather predictions, however. Although CSU was correct, that 2018 would be an above-average year for hurricanes, don't get caught off guard and unprepared. Experts warn there are too many variables at play to accurately predict if their models will hold out until the end of the season. We recommend that people continue to make preparations, stocking up on water, non-perishable foods, backup electrical production and sustainable living practices. 

NOAA's next prediction should come out in May, after the effects of El Nino can be taken into account and the solutions to more variables added to the equation. CSU plans to release a revised forecast, April 4 and hurricane season officially begins, June 1.

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